Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 1.941997 2.053277 2.169955 2.301831 2.447251 2.603293 2.784174
2025-09-14 1.755985 1.907238 2.073083 2.269871 2.498941 2.759626 3.082345
2025-09-21 1.631615 1.803414 1.997427 2.235383 2.523122 2.864930 3.309822
2025-09-28 1.532546 1.716244 1.928380 2.195307 2.527971 2.937218 3.492886
2025-10-05 1.488601 1.688188 1.923729 2.227711 2.618305 3.116589 3.824495
2025-10-12 1.452681 1.665885 1.922400 2.261139 2.708860 3.300035 4.178002
2025-10-19 1.418391 1.642549 1.916896 2.286744 2.788414 3.472597 4.533311
2025-10-26 1.372521 1.601788 1.886240 2.276164 2.816442 3.573540 4.791642
2025-11-02 1.330850 1.563974 1.856785 2.264320 2.840222 3.668119 5.048730
2025-11-09 1.287344 1.521681 1.819079 2.238396 2.841090 3.727134 5.253045
2025-11-16 1.246497 1.481052 1.781493 2.210077 2.835699 3.774718 5.441858
2025-11-23 1.219930 1.457894 1.765880 2.211071 2.872543 3.889587 5.761849
2025-11-30 1.198112 1.440634 1.758007 2.223339 2.928214 4.041356 6.176887
2025-12-07 1.162583 1.403845 1.721997 2.193129 2.916596 4.081239 6.384515
2025-12-14 1.128538 1.367885 1.685678 2.160508 2.898739 4.108308 6.569622
2025-12-21 1.094753 1.331222 1.647043 2.122580 2.869918 4.113564 6.709714
2025-12-28 1.085600 1.327686 1.654415 2.153249 2.952697 4.321705 7.321138
2026-01-04 1.077263 1.324841 1.662408 2.184871 3.038692 4.544006 8.014214
2026-01-11 1.067059 1.318968 1.665668 2.209083 3.113529 4.753068 8.727735
2026-01-18 1.047163 1.298914 1.647646 2.199080 3.128777 4.848002 9.173573
2026-01-25 1.027912 1.279217 1.629450 2.187880 3.140994 4.937723 9.627524
2026-02-01 1.005752 1.254832 1.603613 2.163358 3.128022 4.974667 9.941796
2026-02-08 0.983925 1.230406 1.577018 2.136561 3.109397 4.998097 10.223161